Which Medical Schools to Apply to with Predicted AAB

There are ten medical schools that don't look at your predicted grades at all. No matter what you're predicted, you're on the same footing as everyone else: these schools rank you on what you've already achieved, usually your GCSEs and your UCAT, and only check your A-Level grades once results come out.

So these are the best schools to build your list around. Just remember that the offer itself doesn't change: Aston, Keele and Oxford will still ask for A*AA and the rest for AAA. You're applying on the basis that your predicted grades are on the cautious side, and that you'll do better in your actual results.

There are four more schools that will consider you with predicted AAB:

None of these four score your predicted grades in shortlisting, so once you've cleared the AAB bar it's your GCSEs and UCAT that decide whether you're interviewed. However, if you're successful and receive an offer, you'll still be asked to achieve AAA or A*AA to keep your place. Being considered on a lower prediction doesn't mean a lower offer, and if you miss the offer your place isn't guaranteed.

Two more schools have offers at AAB or below, but each comes with a catch:

The sixteen schools above are the only ones that explicitly say applicants predicted AAB meet their entry requirements and will be considered. However, there's one other way in with predicted grades below AAA, and that's through contextual schemes. Many schools make reduced offers to contextual applicants, and the reduced offer is usually also the reduced prediction they need from you. The following eighteen schools make contextual offers of AAB:

And ten schools go further and make contextual offers of ABB:

Leicester and QMUL only drop one grade, from A*AA to AAA, so contextual status doesn't help with predicted AAB there. Brunel, Cambridge, Cardiff, Glasgow, Hertfordshire, Imperial, KCL, Oxford and UEA make no reduced contextual offer at all.

What counts as contextual can vary a lot between schools: it can be free school meals, a deprived or low-participation postcode, a below-average school, care experience, being a carer, refugee status, or completing a named widening participation programme. Check each school's criteria before you count on it.

If you're not contextual, the rest of the list gets much shorter. These twenty schools state clearly that you must be predicted their full offer to be considered, so a predicted AAB is rejected before anyone looks at your UCAT. Don't use a choice on any of them.

Imperial, QMUL and UCL ask for A*AA predicted; the rest ask for AAA.

These seven schools have a standard offer of AAA or higher but don't publish a separate predicted-grade rule. In practice you should expect to be screened against the offer, but if one of these is a school you really want, it's worth emailing admissions to ask before you apply.

Work through the groups above in order:

1. 1.Start with the ten schools that don't use predicted grades. Aston, Cardiff, Keele, KMMS, Lincoln, Liverpool, Manchester, Nottingham, Oxford and Exeter. Your GCSEs and UCAT now do all the work, so check each school's requirements for those. Be realistic about Exeter and Oxford.
2. 2.Add the four that accept predicted AAB. Birmingham, HYMS, Lancaster and Leicester. Again, GCSEs and UCAT decide whether you get an interview.
3. 3.Check whether you're contextual. If you are, up to twenty-eight more schools open up at AAB or ABB, and the reduced offer usually also lowers the prediction you need.
4. 4.Remember the offer doesn't change. A school that ignores predictions still wants AAA or A*AA in August. If you want a lower bar on results day, a contextual offer is the only place to find it.